“What is America’s critical national interest that would justify a war?”
This is a question that is rarely discussed politically.
The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party recently confronted the scenario, simulating a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan.
Regardless of the justifications, a confrontation with China would be catastrophic for the United States. Hopefully, the American people and Congress understand that fighting China over Taiwan will devastate the country’s armed forces and economy.
19FortyFive reports that 24 wargames between the United States and China were conducted, and the results were published in January by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The U.S. and Taiwan swept the games but at a steep price.
After 14 days of fighting, the overall cost of a war would be higher for the United States. In one scenario, the United States lost 774 aircraft; in another scenario, the loss was 484. Two U.S. aircraft carriers and hundreds of servicemen were lost throughout all 24 scenarios.
According to CSIS’s wargames, it would take years for the United States to develop enough missiles for a prolonged conflict. If fighting broke out in the Taiwan Strait, the United States would not have enough offensive and defensive missiles to keep the air and sea forces going for very long.
In China, missile supplies would last far longer than a week. The United States would be nearly helpless in the air and at sea once our missile stocks were depleted.
The United States’ ability to defend its global interests would be severely hampered if its Pacific air and sea fleets were destroyed. If Washington were to transfer all ammunition from Europe and the Americas to the Indo-Pacific, we would be left defenseless. Our armed forces would be so depleted that, for the first time since World War I, we would be unable to protect our coastlines.
The United States has no vital interests in Taiwan that warrant jeopardizing our security.
If China attacks Taiwan, we must take appropriate action. Several potent diplomatic and financial instruments are at our disposal to harm China.
To many Americans, the prospect of our military being devastated in the Pacific and our ability to defend ourselves being jeopardized is not worth it.