American farmers face severe water shortages as Mexico falls behind on its treaty obligations, forcing the U.S. to take unprecedented action to secure vital resources.
At a Glance
- Under the 1944 Water Treaty, Mexico must deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. over five-year cycles, but has fallen significantly behind
- Mexico has delivered only 28% of its current water obligation, due October 2025
- The U.S. has denied Mexico’s special water requests and halted non-treaty water shipments to Tijuana
- Texas farmers face nearly $1 billion in economic losses, including the closure of the state’s last sugar mill
- Mexican President Sheinbaum recently promised “immediate water delivery” following pressure from President Trump
Treaty Violations and Escalating Tensions
Mexico’s failure to fulfill its water delivery obligations under the 81-year-old U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty has reached a crisis point. The 1944 agreement requires Mexico to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water over five-year cycles to the United States, while the U.S. provides Mexico with 1.5 million acre-feet annually from the Colorado River. Despite these clear terms, Mexico has fallen significantly behind, delivering only 28% of its obligation by March 2025, with the full amount due in October.
“Just last month, I halted water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty,” said President Donald Trump.
This marks a significant shift in U.S. policy. Historically, American officials have overlooked Mexico’s noncompliance to maintain economic relations. However, the current administration has taken unprecedented action by denying Mexico’s special water requests and halting non-treaty water shipments to Tijuana. This is the first time such measures have been implemented, signaling a hardening stance on treaty enforcement.
Devastating Impact on American Agriculture
The water shortages have hit American farmers particularly hard, especially those in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Agricultural producers in these regions face severe drought conditions with dwindling reservoirs, leading to nearly $1 billion in economic losses in 2023 alone. The situation became so dire that the Rio Grande Valley’s last sugar mill closed in 2024, ending a long-standing industry in the region.
In response to these agricultural losses, the USDA has announced a $280 million grant program to support affected Texas producers. This financial relief aims to provide immediate assistance to farmers struggling with crop losses and increased production costs due to water shortages. However, many producers argue that what they truly need is the water Mexico owes them, not financial compensation.
Causes of Mexico’s Water Deficits
Several factors have contributed to Mexico’s inability to meet its treaty obligations. Severe drought conditions across the region have reduced available water resources, a point Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly emphasized. “We have experienced more than four years of drought, so there is less water,” Sheinbaum stated recently as she promised an immediate water delivery to Texas farmers.
“There’s no way [Mexico] can come up with the water they owe by October. The timing is also interesting because it brings together all these issues of interdependence between nations,” said Evan Ellis.
Beyond drought, significant population growth and agricultural intensification on both sides of the border have strained water resources. The 1944 treaty was negotiated when water was more abundant, and today’s demographics and water demand bear little resemblance to conditions 80 years ago. Mexico has failed to meet its five-year delivery obligations three times since 1992, highlighting the persistent nature of this problem.
Political Pressure and Potential Solutions
Texas lawmakers have become increasingly vocal about Mexico’s treaty violations. Governor Greg Abbott declared that “Mexico’s blatant disregard of water obligations must not be allowed to continue,” while Senators Ted Cruz and John Cornyn have called for stronger actions, including potential sanctions. Their concerns reflect the growing frustration among their constituents who depend on these water resources for their livelihoods.
“This is very unfair, and it is hurting South Texas Farmers very badly. Last year, the only Sugar Mill in Texas CLOSED, because Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas Farmers. THAT ENDS NOW! I will make sure Mexico doesn’t violate our Treaties, and doesn’t hurt our Texas Farmers,” added President Trump.
In November 2024, a treaty amendment was introduced to provide Mexico with more options to meet its obligations, including the use of alternative rivers for water delivery. Both nations are working on a long-term plan to address water debts and ensure reliable deliveries in the future. Following President Trump’s threats of tariffs and sanctions, Mexican President Sheinbaum announced an “immediate water delivery” to Texas farmers, though details on the volume and timeline remain vague.
