Russia’s arms exports are in free fall, with a staggering 93% decline forecasted by the end of 2024.
It’s bad news for Putin.
At a Glance
- Russian arms exports expected to plummet from $14.6 billion in 2021 to less than $1 billion by 2024
- Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions severely impacting Russia’s defense production capacity
- Russia falls from second to third place globally in arms exports, overtaken by France
- Number of countries importing Russian weapons drops from 31 in 2019 to 12 in 2023
- Experts suggest Russia’s military-industrial complex hopes to resume exports post-conflict
The Dramatic Decline of Russian Arms Exports
Russia’s once-dominant position in the global arms trade is crumbling. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions have dealt a severe blow to the country’s defense industry, leading to a projected 93% reduction in arms exports over just three years. This unprecedented decline has far-reaching implications for Russia’s economy and global influence.
The numbers paint a stark picture of this decline. In 2021, Russian arms exports generated a substantial $14.6 billion in revenue. However, by the end of 2024, this figure is expected to plummet to less than $1 billion. The drastic reduction is already evident, with revenues falling to $8 billion in 2022 and further dropping to $3 billion by the end of 2023.
Russia's arms exports continue to dwindle as their low quality on the battlefields of Ukraine leads one of its biggest export market – India – to reduce imports.
"India is reportedly attempting to decouple its defense industry from Russia as it increases cooperation with Western…
— Taras Kuzio🇬🇧🇪🇺🇺🇦🇮🇹 (@TarasKuzio) December 4, 2024
Factors Behind the Collapse
The primary catalyst for this dramatic decline is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The conflict has forced Moscow to prioritize its own military needs over export commitments, severely straining its defense production capacity. Western sanctions have further exacerbated the situation, limiting Russia’s access to crucial technologies and components needed for weapons manufacturing.
It’s not just the Ukraine conflict that’s causing problems. Russia’s arms export industry has been losing competitiveness since the early 2010s. Efforts by major customers like China and India to boost their domestic arms production have also contributed to the decline – and academics across the globe are picking up on it.
“We see that Russia, as an arms exporter, has generally failed,” Pavel Luzin, nonresident senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said.
These long-term trends, combined with the current crisis, have created a perfect storm for Russia’s defense industry.
The consequences of this decline are reflected in global arms export rankings. Russia has fallen from its long-held position as the world’s second-largest arms exporter to third place, overtaken by France. This shift in the global arms trade landscape underscores the severity of Russia’s export crisis and its diminishing influence in the international defense market.
The number of countries importing Russian weapons has also decreased significantly, dropping from 31 in 2019 to just 12 in 2023. This shrinking customer base further illustrates the erosion of Russia’s position in the global arms market and raises questions about its future as a major weapons supplier.
Future Prospects and Challenges
Despite the current crisis, Russia’s military-industrial complex appears to be holding out hope for a post-conflict recovery. Defense policy expert Pavel Luzin suggests that the industry is counting on an end to the Ukraine conflict to resume fulfilling export contracts and regain its lost market share.
“It is clear here that the military-industrial complex is counting on stopping, freezing, ending the war in order to return to fulfilling export contracts, because they gave a good inflow, including hard currency,” Luzin added.
However, the road to recovery will be challenging. Russia’s reputation as a reliable arms supplier has been severely damaged, and it faces stiff competition in the high-value market for advanced military systems. While Moscow may maintain a strong position in the lower-cost market, particularly in Africa, the monetary value of these deals is likely to be limited.
