Poll SHOCK – Stefanik TIES Hochul in NY Race

Republican Elise Stefanik trails incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul by just one percentage point in a hypothetical New York governor’s race, signaling a potential major upset in the traditionally blue state.

At a Glance

  • Rep. Stefanik polls at 42% versus Gov. Hochul’s 43% with 15% of voters undecided
  • Hochul’s approval rating stands at just 30%, with 57% disapproving of her performance
  • Only 23% of respondents believe Hochul deserves reelection, while 63% prefer a new candidate
  • Stefanik dominates potential GOP primary field with 56% support compared to single digits for other Republicans
  • The poll surveyed 1,163 likely voters with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points

Hochul’s Vulnerability Exposed in New Polling

A new poll by right-leaning firm co/efficient reveals a surprisingly competitive race for New York’s governorship, with Republican Representative Elise Stefanik polling just one percentage point behind Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul. The survey of 1,163 likely voters shows Hochul at 43% support compared to Stefanik’s 42%, with a critical 15% of voters still undecided. These numbers suggest a dramatic shift in New York’s political landscape, where Democrats have traditionally maintained comfortable margins in statewide races. The poll carries a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points, making the race a statistical dead heat.

The incumbent governor faces significant challenges heading into a potential reelection bid. Her approval rating sits at just 30%, with a majority 57% of voters disapproving of her performance. Even more concerning for Hochul’s campaign, only 23% of respondents believe she deserves another term, while a substantial 63% would prefer to see someone new in the governor’s mansion. These numbers reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the current administration that could prove difficult to overcome, even in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican Governor since George Pataki in 2002. 

Stefanik Emerges as GOP Frontrunner

The poll positions Stefanik as the clear favorite among potential Republican candidates. In a hypothetical GOP primary, she commands 56% support, vastly outpacing her nearest competitors—Representative Mike Lawler at 9% and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman at 8%. This substantial lead indicates Stefanik’s strong name recognition and popularity within her party. Despite her strong position, Stefanik’s overall favorability rating stands at 34%, with 32% viewing her unfavorably and 34% either unsure or unfamiliar with her—suggesting room for both growth and vulnerability as more voters become acquainted with her.

“Hochul’s re-elect score further highlights her inherent vulnerability,” said Ryan Munce, president of co/efficient, the polling firm that conducted the survey.  

Stefanik’s Senior Adviser, Alex DeGrasse, has indicated she would be a formidable candidate “if she decides to run,” though no Republican has officially announced their candidacy for the 2026 gubernatorial race. Political analysts note that Stefanik’s current position as the fourth-highest-ranking House Republican and her close alliance with former President Trump could either strengthen her appeal among conservative voters or present challenges in a state that typically leans Democratic. The undecided 15% of voters will likely play a decisive role in determining the ultimate outcome. 

Campaign Responses and Political Context

The Hochul campaign has dismissed the poll results, characterizing Stefanik as “a staunch Trump loyalist who is gutting New Yorkers’ healthcare and fighting to rip away their rights.” Campaign spokesperson Jen Goodman further stated they “welcome the opportunity to contrast Gov. Hochul’s record of putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, supporting our kids, and keeping communities safe with Stefanik’s out-of-touch, divisive and dangerous record.” This messaging indicates the likely strategy Hochul would employ in a potential matchup, framing the race as a choice between mainstream Democratic policies and what they characterize as extreme Republican positions. 

The political environment in New York has shifted since 2018, when Republicans lost significant ground in the state. According to the co/efficient poll, former President Trump now enjoys improved popularity, especially among male voters and those unaffiliated with either major party. This changing dynamic could influence down-ballot races, including the governor’s contest. A separate Siena College poll showed somewhat different results, with Hochul holding a 44% favorability rating, though it also confirmed Stefanik as the leading Republican contender with 35% support among potential GOP candidates.

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