Only 50-50 Chance of Milky Way-Andromeda Collision, New Study Finds

New scientific studies reveal that the odds of our Milky Way galaxy colliding with the nearest major galaxy, Andromeda (M31), are less than what was previously anticipated.

Previous research found that the collision between the two galaxies was inevitable in the next 10 billion years, raising concerns about the future of life on Earth in post-collision time.

M31 is located nearly 2.5 million light years away from the Milky Way and is rapidly advancing towards our galaxy at 110 kilometers per second of speed.

According to the new study published in Arxiv, it is hard to predict the current locations of the galaxies and the speed at which they are moving, which gives us fair room to speculate that they can eventually miss the collision that was previously deemed inevitable.

Astronomer Vesto Slipher was the first individual to raise concerns about the Milky Way and M31 collision back in 1912. Subsequent studies revealed that this collision could happen as soon as in five billion years, potentially resulting in the formation of a new elliptical galaxy containing both the Milky Way and M31.

Now, scientists argue that previous studies ignored the “confounding factor” when calculating the course of collision between the two bodies. Confounding factor refers to the gravitational forces in play due to the motion of other smaller galaxies neighboring us, which could eventually help the Milky Way and the M31 avoid collision.

Both the Milky Way and the M31 are part of a larger galaxy group known as the Local Group, which also contains other galaxies like the Triangulum and the Large Magellanic Cloud, whose gravitational forces are likely to decrease the collision probability. Scientists managed to get this and other information about these galaxies with the help of Hubble Space and Gaia telescopes and used the data in their model to see a variety of possible outcomes.

Despite these studies, the scientists maintained that their research is still not conclusive enough to find any certain information about the merger of the Milky Way and the M31. They maintained that the prediction of end times is an ongoing phenomenon, and we are far away from times when we could say any conclusive thing about the future of the Milky Way and, hence, human civilization.

It also remains unclear what a potential collision of the Milky Way and the M31 would mean for the universe in general, as an overwhelming number of celestial bodies and their behavior still remain hidden from science.