Early voting trends in North Carolina suggest Trump could secure a crucial victory, potentially reshaping the 2024 presidential race.
At a Glance
- Republicans lead early voting by 0.9 points, a significant shift from previous elections
- Democratic voter registration has decreased by 168,000 since 2020, while Republican registration has increased by 118,000
- Trump’s share of the white vote in North Carolina has dropped from 66% to 58% since 2020
- North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes are crucial for both campaigns’ path to victory
- Polls show a tight race despite favorable early voting trends for Trump
Trump’s Early Voting Advantage
Michael McDonald, a respected early voting expert, has delivered a striking assessment of the presidential race in North Carolina. According to McDonald, Donald Trump appears poised to win this crucial swing state based on current early voting trends.
The most telling indicator of Trump’s potential success is the unprecedented lead that registered Republicans hold in early voting. As McDonald explains, “In 2020, NC registered Democrats had a 5.6 advantage in early voting (both mail and in-person early) at this time. In 2016, registered Democrats had a 9.8 point lead. Now, in 2024, it is registered Republicans who have a 0.9 point lead.” This reversal suggests a surge in Republican enthusiasm that could propel Trump to victory in the Tar Heel State.
Shifting Demographics and Voter Registration
The early voting advantage for Republicans is further bolstered by significant changes in voter registration since 2020. Democratic voter registration in North Carolina plummeted by 168,000, while Republican registration surged by 118,000. This shift has dramatically reduced the Democratic lead in registered voters from 400,000 to a mere 113,000.
“The good news for Donald Trump is he appears poised to win North Carolina based on the early voting. If early voting is a measure of relative enthusiasm of the parties, Trump appears to have wind in his sails,” Mr. McDonald said.
However, experts note that early voting trends don’t tell the whole story. Polling data indicates a much tighter race in North Carolina, with some surveys showing Trump ahead by a single point. This discrepancy between early voting patterns and polling has led to increased campaign activity in the state, with both Trump and Harris making multiple stops there.
The Importance of North Carolina
North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes are pivotal for both campaigns’ paths to victory. For Trump, winning North Carolina is essential if he hopes to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency, especially if he also carries Georgia and Pennsylvania. Conversely, Harris could potentially clinch the election by winning North Carolina if she loses one of the Blue Wall states.
The state’s unique position as the only swing state Trump carried in 2020 while losing the national popular vote highlights its significance and has prompted both candidates to invest heavily in campaigning there.
Challenges for Trump
Despite the favorable early voting trends, Trump faces some unexpected challenges in North Carolina. Most notably, his share of the white vote has dropped from 66% in 2020 to 58% in recent polls. This erosion of support among a key demographic could potentially offset the gains made through increased Republican voter registration and early voting turnout.
Additionally, Harris has made inroads with key voter groups, performing better among both whites without college degrees and college-educated whites compared to Biden’s 2020 performance.
