Economist Claims NYC Coronavirus Curve is Flattening Already

(PatrioticPost.Com)- Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel? According to MIT economist Jeffrey E. Harris, the coronavirus infection/death curve is already flattening in New York City, signalling that measures taken to reduce the spread of the virus may have worked.

In a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Harris explains how the “coronavirus epidemic curve is already flattening” in New York City. If true, it means many experts who predicted the city would see more death and economic chaos for months may be wrong. At least, partly.

If the curve is flattening now it means that the city has the problem under control, but it doesn’t mean people will be safe to go about their lives as normal.

In the report, Harris offers alternative explanations for why the cases appear to be tapering off so soon but doesn’t provide specific answers. Nor does he claim to have all the answers.

“New York City has been rightly characterized as the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States,” he writes. “Just one month after the first cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the city, the burden of infected individuals with serious complications of COVID-19 has already outstripped the capacity of the city’s hospitals.”

Harris explains that scientists and public officials do not have access to real-time or accurate data relating to the path of new infections – and he’s right. Until the country can test every single person, and do so regularly and accurately, it is impossible to know where the virus is and where it is spreading.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, who sits on the White House Coronavirus Taskforce, recently said during a daily press briefing that what we see today is the result of infections that may have taken place two and a half weeks ago.

In the report, Harris showed a chart display the number of new reported infections in New York every day, based on the best data the New York City Department of Health has. Harris shows a rapid flattening of infections, which he believes may be caused by s the following variables:

1. New York City residents leaving the city
2. False negatives
3. Supply constraints on coronavirus tests
4. Asymptomatic cases

…among others.

Harris does say, however, that it is entirely possible the cases are flattening because of bad data, but that the number of infections is still also declining.

“It is entirely possible that some of these alternative explanations are at least partially valid and that the epidemic curve in New York City is flattening,” he said. “based on the evidence reviewed here, however, it is difficult to dismiss out of hand the conclusion that the incidence of new coronavirus infections has indeed levelled off.”

As New York City continues to struggle with the pandemic, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced on Monday that he was increasing the maximum fine for violating social distancing rules from $500 to $1,000.